Joint spatial registration and multi-target tracking using an extended PM-CPHD filter

An extended product multi-sensor cardinalized probability hypothesis density (PM-CPHD) filter for spatial registration and multi-target tracking (MTT) is proposed. The number and states of targets and the biases of sensors are jointly estimated by this method without the data association. Monte Carlo (MC) simulation results show that the proposed method (i) outperforms, although computationally more expensive than, the extended multi-sensor PHD filter which has been proposed for joint spatial registration and MTT; (ii) outperforms the multi-sensor joint probabilistic data association (MSJPDA) filter which is also extended in this study for joint spatial registration and MTT when the clutter is relatively dense.     

兴趣和蚁群相结合的非结构化P2P搜索算法

针对传统flooding搜索算法面临的效率低下和网络流量过大等问题,提出了一种改进的基于兴趣和蚁群相结合的资源搜索算法（IASA）。该算法将TTL机制加以改进,并将兴趣相似度引入到蚁群算法的路径概率选择中,同时结合信息素的多样性和正反馈机制,积累历史搜索经验,获得路由指引信息,从而有效地指导查询请求消息的转发,将请求消息尽量发往资源可能存在的节点上。仿真实验表明：该算法能有效地指导资源搜索的方向,提高查询命中率,减少冗余消息包,其整体搜索效果较好。     

泥沙起动条件分析及推移质输沙率公式

基于床面均匀泥沙颗粒相对位置关系,确定了瞬时作用流速及有效作用高度,建立了平坡泥沙起动条件与床面泥沙暴露度的关系。从理论上分析得到,泥沙跃移起动要求水流条件最高,滚动起动及滑动起动取决于泥沙颗粒的暴露角,且暴露角θ不随拖曳力系数C_D和上举力系数C_L的变化而变化。当暴露角θ小于42.8°时,泥沙更易于滚动起动;当暴露角θ大于42.8°时,泥沙更易于滑动起动。在此基础上,推导出了考虑两种起动模式的起动全概率公式,建立了床面推移质单宽输沙率公式。通过经典的推移质输沙率实测资料验证及误差计算表明,公式结构合理,计算精度较高,对于高、中、低输沙率都具有较好的适用性。     

水工钢闸门主梁模糊失效概率计算方法研究

为合理计算水工钢闸门主梁模糊失效概率,分别将主梁相对变形当作一个随机变量及三个变量的组合,采用积分法、当量随机化方法及蒙特卡罗法进行了计算。当相对变形为一个随机量时,采用积分法及当量随机化方法计算,两者的差别在于积分法用隶属函数描述模糊限值,当量随机化方法是将模糊限值当量作为一个随机量。当相对变形看作三个变量的组合时采用蒙特卡罗法进行计算,该方法考虑了三个变量的分布特性,更符合实际情况,模糊限值也用随机量表示。计算表明,积分法与当量随机化方法结果相近,验证了当量随机化方法的精度;蒙特卡罗法结果与相对变形服从正态分布时、用当量随机化方法计算的结果接近,故主梁相对变形服从正态分布更为合理。三种计算方法中,当量随机化方法计算失效概率相较于其它方法有计算过程简便,效率高的优点。     

水工建筑物初生空化数及其比尺效应研究进展

水工建筑物结构水力设计中通常涉及防空蚀设计,一般规定水流空化数σ_i<0.3的区域或者流速大于15 m/s的部位要进行防空蚀设计。水工建筑物不同部位结构,初生空化数不同,该值的分析一方面通过理论计算,另一方面则是通过减压模型试验,试验不可避免地存在比尺效应。对目前国内外初生空化数的计算公式加以总结,指出不同公式的优缺点及适用条件;对初生空化的比尺效应进行相应归纳,为模型试验测定初生空化数提供新的思考方法;同时总结了水工建筑物不同部位初生空化判断标准,为相应的设计研究提供具体详细的指导。     

基于概率分析的锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构寿命预测

钢筋锈蚀是导致混凝土结构破坏的主要原因,合理预测锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构的使用寿命对减少工程的经济损失、保证结构的安全运行具有重要意义。针对锈蚀钢筋混凝土结构在不同寿命评估准则下的使用寿命预测问题,基于混凝土结构耐久性现状检测结果,采用概率分析可靠度方法,通过抗力和荷载效应的统计特征求得结构的时变可靠指标,从而对结构的裂缝宽度寿命和承载力寿命进行分析预测。以拱坝孔口和水电站厂房吊车梁为例进行计算,研究结果表明：结构的动态可靠指标随着服役时间的增加呈下降趋势,概率分析法的寿命预测结果在合理的预测区间内。研究成果可在实际工程中为钢筋混凝土结构的维修和加固提供决策依据。     

Probabilistic heuristic estimates

Though they constitute the major knowledge source in problem-solving systems, no unified theory of heuristics has emerged. Pearl [15] defines heuristics as criteria, methods, or principles for deciding which among several alternative courses of action promises to be the most effective in order to achieve some goal. The absence of a more precise definition has impeded our efforts to understand, utilize, and discover heuristics. Another consequence is that problem-solving techniques which rely on heuristic knowledge cannot be relied upon to act rationally — in the sense of the normative theory of rationality.To provide a sound basis for BPS, the Bayesian Problem-Solver, we have developed a simple formal theory of heuristics, which is general enough to subsume traditional heuristic functions as well as other forms of problem-solving knowledge, and to straddle disparate problem domains. Probabilistic heuristic estimates represent a probabilistic association of sensations with prior experience — specifically, a mapping from observations directly to subjective probabilities which enables the use of theoretically principled mechanisms for coherent inference and decision making during problem-solving. This paper discusses some of the implications of this theory, and describes its successful application in BPS.This research was made possible by support from Heuristicrats, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and the Rand Corporation.     

初生空化与液体抗拉强度的关系

自1983年开始以液体的抗拉强度作为其空化临界压强研究初生空化的比尺效应以来,该方法已得到进一步的应用和完善。本文就研究中遇到的一些问题,如关于空化灵敏度仪的校正,“零抗拉强度”的概念,试验设备中液体抗拉强度的动态变化以及在空化试验中使用该方法的技术和意义等作详细的阐述。     

融合信任关系与评论文本的矩阵分解推荐算法

针对推荐系统中用户评分数据稀疏所导致推荐结果不精确的问题,本文尝试将用户评分、信任关系和项目评论文本信息融合在概率矩阵分解方法中以缓解评分数据稀疏性问题.首先以共同好友数目及项目流行度改进皮尔逊用户偏好相似程度并将其作为用户间的直接信任值,然后考虑用户间信任传播过程中所有路径的影响构建新的信任网络;其次通过BERT预训练(Pre-training of Deep Bidirectional Transformers for Language Understanding)模型提取项目的评论文本向量,构造项目的评论文本特征矩阵;最后基于概率矩阵分解(Probabilistic Matrix Factorization,PMF)模型融合用户的评分数据、用户的信任关系以及项目的评论文本信息进行推荐.通过不断的理论分析并在真实的Yelp数据集上进行实验验证,均表明本文算法的有效性.     

Integer-multiple-spacing-based scheduling for multimedia applications in IEEE 802.11e HCCA wireless networks

This paper is concerned with improving bandwidth utilization while guaranteeing quality-of-service (QoS) requirements for multimedia applications in IEEE 802.11e HCCA wireless networks. We propose two integer-multiple-spacing-based (IMS-based) designs: the IMS-based-δ and IMS-based-l designs. In the IMS-based designs, the scheduling spacing of any traffic must be an integer multiple of the minimum spacing. The IMS-based designs have more potential to improve the bandwidth utilization because they schedule traffic with longer spacings compared with the prior designs. Besides the improvement of the bandwidth utilization, the IMS-based-δ design can guarantee the packet delay requirements, where a δ factor is introduced to ensure that the bandwidth utilization must benefit from longer spacings, while the IMS-based-l design can guarantee the packet loss requirements. Numerical results show that the improvement of the bandwidth utilization for the IMS-based-δ and -l designs can be up to 7.7% and 56% or more, respectively, compared with the prior designs.